The WTI Crude Oil Futures (NYMEX: CL) opened the week negatively to close a second day lower, following the release of Chinese economic data, which left the market unimpressed.
The year-over-year GDP growth rate of the biggest crude oil importer was 6.3% for the second quarter, lower than anticipated, while retail sales at 3.1% was a far cry from the 12.7% recorded in June a year ago. The markets grew jittery over the crude oil demand outlook as China’s post-lockdown economic recovery has been slower than anticipated, capping the oil futures’ upside gains over recent weeks. Traders will closely monitor today’s U.S. retail sales to determine whether developments in the biggest economy in the world could support the recent surge in crude oil prices.
Technical
The WTI Crude Oil Futures exited a long-term consolidation after the price crossed above the 100-day moving average and broke above the $74.02 per barrel (BLL) level, which used to act as resistance. After surging to the $77.30 BLL level, downside pressure took precedence, leading to a reversal which left behind a new resistance at the $77.30 BLL level.
The oil futures were dragged lower to the support level, corresponding with the 50% Fibonacci Retracement level. A high volume breakdown below the $74.02 BLL level could indicate the presence of bearish activity within the market. The $72.92 BLL level will likely be the next level of significance to the downside. In contrast, the $77.30 BLL level could come into play if the $74.02 BLL level is respected as a support level.
Summary
The $74.02 BLL level will likely play a pivotal role in defining which direction market sentiment on oil futures leans towards, depending on the reaction to the level. If the level holds its weight, the oil futures could be redirected higher, with the $77.30 BLL level a likely point of interest to the upside. Alternatively, a high volume breakdown below the level could expose the oil futures to further downside pressure, leaving the Golden Ratio at $72.92 BLL probable.
Sources: The Observatory of Economic Complexity, Reuters, TradingView
