The EURUSD’s Upside Momentum Spills Over into the New Week

Piece written by Nkosilathi Dube, Trive Financial Market Analyst 

According to data released on Friday, German wholesale prices dropped by 2.9% in June compared to the same month last year, which is the most significant decrease in three years and suggests that inflation in Europe’s largest economy could begin tapering off.  

Due to the U.S. economy’s weakening fundamentals, which have fuelled estimates of the peak of monetary tightening around the corner, the market has turned down the greenback in favour of other currencies. The U.S. inflation rate dropped from 4% to 3% in June, showing that the monetary tightening cycle, which resulted in interest rate increases of 500 basis points beginning in March 2022, is having its intended effect. A significant contributor to inflation, the labour market also cooled, with Nonfarm Payrolls falling to 209K from 306K. The EURUSD currency pair closed a third consecutive week in positive territory. Is a fourth on the table?  

Technical 

The EURUSD currency pair has been in a firm uptrend after the pair fled from its 100-day moving average with conviction. The breakout above the 1.10935 level, which used to have resistant properties, now forms a support level, while the 1.13668 level forms a resistance level established in early 2022.  

Upside momentum took the pair within the 50% Fibonacci Extension level at the 1.12857 level. If upside momentum falters, a reversal will likely occur, with the 1.10935 level the next likely point of interest for pessimistic traders.  

In contrast, a high volume breakout above the 1.12857 level could expose the pair to further upside possibilities, with the 1.13668 likely earmarked as a level of significance to the upside by optimistic traders. 

Summary 

This week, traders will likely look to fundamental data to determine whether the Euro’s strength will continue through the week. With the Euro Area Inflation Rate looming, the forecasted decline could cap the Euro’s upside if the European Central Bank is warranted to slow down rate hikes. The 1.12857 will be key to monitor as sentiment could pivot off the level.  

Sources: Reuters, TradingView