Inflation Slowdown Boosts Crude Oil Rally

The WTI Crude Oil Futures (NYMEX: CL) have enjoyed an impressive rally since Tuesday due to slowing inflation in the US which reinforced the nearing the end of the Fed’s aggressive tightening policy. Furthermore, the Chinese government’s recent unveiling of measures aimed at fostering economic growth, combined with a decline in crude oil output in Russia, has created a promising outlook for increased demand. 

Headline inflation in the US has cooled at a faster pace than anticipated, dropping from 4% to 3%, falling short of the projected 3.1%. Core inflation, which has been persistently sticky, has also cooled beyond expectations, declining from 5.3% to 4.8% and surpassing forecasts by 0.2%. The unexpectedly accelerated decline in inflation holds the potential to shift the Federal Reserve’s stance from hawkish to dovish, which could further bolster positive sentiment in the oil market. 


The WTI Crude Oil Futures are rallying on the 4H Chart following the rejection of the $72.82 per barrel (BLL) support at the 38.20% Fibonacci Retracement. If upside momentum persists, the $76.73 BLL major resistance could be retested, given a breakout from the $75,95 BLL current price level.  

However, the $75.95 BLL resistance could hold, which may encourage the futures to pull back towards the $74.02 BLL support at the 38.20% Fibonacci Retracement, paving the way towards the previous $72.82 BLL support. 


The WTI Crude Oil Futures are rallying on the backdrop of cooling inflation in the US and rising demand for oil in Russia. If the upward momentum is sustained, the bulls may be encouraged to retest the $76.73 BLL major resistance. However, the $75.95 resistance could hold, which could encourage downside momentum towards the $72.82 BLL support. 

Sources: TradingView, Reuters