Piece written by Mfanafuthi Mhlongo, Trive Financial Market Analyst
Amid recent market developments, the EURUSD currency pair faces intriguing prospects. Eurozone’s business activity contracting, as reflected in the HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI drop to 47.0 in August from 48.6, unveils challenges. Notably, the composite index’s plunge, the lowest since November 2020, is attributed to manufacturing output contracting at its second-strongest pace in 11 years and services output declining for the first time since December 2022. This, combined with inflationary pressures and reduced job creation, adds complexity.
Conversely, China’s evolving approach towards a more freely traded yuan influences the market landscape. The yuan’s controlled depreciation aims to avoid abrupt volatility, even as it approaches its record low versus the dollar. Consequently, USD/CNY’s gradual rise could prompt state bank sales to ease or cease. In the context of these global dynamics, the EURUSD currency pair encounters a blend of Eurozone contraction concerns and evolving yuan strategies, leaving the currency pair under pressure ahead of the highly anticipated Jackson Hole Symposium.
Technical
Examining EURUSD’s 4-hour chart, the current price is 1.08245, following a failed breakout above a falling wedge trading pattern. The price is below the 50-EMA and 200-EMA, hinting at potential short-term bearishness.
Key indicators spotlight interesting details. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 33.43 signifies moderate oversold conditions, with RSI-based Moving Average (MA) at 45.23, confirming the slight bearish pressure. A successful dip lower, especially on higher volume, could steer the price towards 1.07854 and 1.07318, signifying increased selling pressure.
Conversely, a sustained push higher could offer short-term trading opportunities towards the hurdles at 1.09714 and 1.09303 resistance levels.
Summary
The recent price action of the currency pair on the 4-hour chart portrays a failed attempt to push higher, with bears’ recent dominance clearly visible. Therefore, following the disappointing PMI data from the EUROZONE, the 1.07854 and 1.07318 could come into play should the US dollar continue strengthening and the Euro continue to wither ahead of the Jackson Hole symposium.
Sources: TradningView, Reuters, Trading Economics.
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