Piece written by Mfanafuthi Mhlongo, Trive Financial Market Analyst 

The EURGBP currency pair finds itself in a subdued trading pattern as market participants eagerly await the upcoming European Central Bank (ECB) Interest Rate Decision scheduled for later today. The pair has remained relatively stable around the 0.8600 level since June, with recent events playing a pivotal role. 

Weak UK GDP figures have cast doubt on further rate hikes by the Bank of England (BoE), potentially leading to a pause in its tightening cycle. Additionally, gloomy sentiment in the real estate sector is raising concerns about the UK economy’s outlook. 

On the other side, the ECB faces a challenging decision as well. Some experts anticipate a rate hike due to persistently high inflation, while others argue that more tightening could exacerbate economic challenges. With the market slightly tilted towards a pause, the interest rate decision from the ECB could have a significant impact on the currency pair in the coming sessions. 

Technical 

In the 4-hour chart for EURGBP, we see a currency pair trading at 0.86047, firmly positioned within an ascending channel pattern around a crucial level. This level is pivotal for future price action. 

Notably, the price action is currently residing above several key moving averages: the 20-EMA (blue line), 50-EMA (red line), and 100-EMA (orange line). The recent crossover of the 20-EMA above both the 50-EMA and 100-EMA signals short-term bullish momentum. Additionally, the RSI (Relative Strength Index) is on an uptrend, currently at 58.88, with an RSI-based moving average of 58.03. This suggests growing buying pressure. 

Given the upcoming ECB interest rate decision, traders should be watchful. If the ECB opts for a rate hike, we might see EURGBP targeting resistance levels at 0.86308 and 0.86659 in the short term, as a strengthened Euro becomes more appealing. 

However, should the ECB’s decision lead to a reversal, short-term trading opportunities towards support levels at 0.85690 and 0.85587 may emerge, especially if the price breaks below the daily pivot point and the channel boundary. 

Summary 

In conclusion, the EURGBP currency pair is currently in a precarious position, with market sentiment hanging in the balance leading up to the ECB’s crucial interest rate decision. Traders should approach this situation with caution, as the pair remains at a pivotal juncture. 

The 0.86308 resistance level and the 0.85690 support level are likely to be key areas of interest in the near term. The outcome of the ECB decision could tip the scales in either direction, potentially leading to significant breakouts. 

Sources: TradingView, Trading Economics, Reuters, CNBC, MT Newswire.