Piece written by Mfanafuthi Mhlongo, Trive Financial Market Analyst
The EURUSD pair is currently treading cautiously as traders brace for pivotal events on both sides of the Atlantic. The pair currently hovers around $1.07, a three-month low, with all eyes on the upcoming US CPI report and ECB meeting.
Investors are gearing up for potential fireworks at the ECB as a Reuters report hints at an inflation outlook above 3% for next year. This has stoked expectations of an ECB rate hike this week despite signs of economic softening in the Eurozone.
The European Commission has adjusted its growth forecasts, predicting a 0.8% growth rate for 2023 and 1.3% for 2024, while inflation for 2023 is projected at 5.6%.
In the US, a barrage of critical data and the US CPI report due later today could impact the pair in the short term. The greenback’s recent strength, backed by robust US data, remains a factor. However, whether the Fed’s expected policy stance change will continue to support the dollar remains uncertain.
Technical
The EURUSD, currently at 1.07401, is trading around the daily pivot point but below the 50-EMA, 100-EMA, and 200-EMA, suggesting a bearish sentiment. The 200-EMA, sloping downwards above the 50-EMA, and 100-EMA, reinforces this bearish outlook. The RSI, at 51.14, and RSI-based MA at 51.10, indicate modest bearish momentum.
Volume has been declining, indicating market indecision. Short-term opportunities may emerge towards 1.06867 if bearish pressure persists. A break below this, especially with significant volume, could target the 1.06360 support.
Conversely, failure to sustain a push lower may offer short-term trading towards 1.08022. A break above this level, along with the 100-EMA, could lead to the 1.08646 resistance.
Summary
In conclusion, the EURUSD currency pair remains in a delicate balance, influenced by the volatile market sentiment ahead of the crucial macroeconomic events from both economies.
Investors should exercise caution and be prepared for potential breakouts in either direction as the price hovers around key levels, with the 1.08022 resistance level and the 1.06867 likely acting as levels of interest.
Sources: TradingView, Trading Economics, Reuters, Dow Jones Newswire, MT Newswire.