Piece Written By Nkosilathi Dube, Trive Financial Market Analyst 

The Euro’s unparalleled dominance over the Greenback came to a halt as the EURUSD currency pair consolidated ahead of the release of the highly anticipated Euro Area Inflation.  

Inflation softened to 5.5% for June as expected, from 6.1% the month prior, but will not likely induce a slowdown in rate hikes by the European Central Bank as it has reiterated month after month that it intends to act on steep inflation and bring it within the 2% target. 

Following the Euro Area inflation reading, the week ahead is relatively quiet on the economic calendar. The remaining crucial events will be the U.S. Labour and housing market data that traders will use to gauge if key inflationary drivers will prompt further rate hikes beyond the expected July hike. 

Technical 

The EURUSD currency pair’s steep uptrend, characterised by the pair fleeing from the 100-day moving average to the upside, has stalled. The pair is consolidating sideway in a rectangle pattern as traders wait on the sidelines for key economic data.  

A high volume breakout to either side of the consolidation pattern could prompt an extended move in the direction of the breakout as bears and bulls move out of balance, with either one likely taking control of the pair’s direction. If the pair breaks out to the upside with conviction, the 50% Fibonacci Extension level at 1.12857 could come into play. In contrast, a breakout to the downside could expose the pair to further downside possibilities, making the 1.11366 level a likely point of interest.  

Summary 

The market has priced in a 97.3% probability of the Federal Reserve hiking interest rate by 25 basis points, while the European Central Bank is expected to match that later this month. Given that inflation still towers above the 2% target in the Euro Area, compared to the U.S., the Euro could be supported by the market’s search for higher yields in the medium to long term.  

Sources: CME, Reuters, TradingView