Piece written by Alexa Smith, Trive Financial Market Analyst 

The GER 40 Futures (EUREX: FDAX) ticked up as oil prices and Treasury Yields experienced slight losses from the day before. However, the optimism remains vulnerable to concerns surrounding elevated interest rates, with inflation data in the Euro Area expected to shed light on the trajectory of the European Central Bank and the economy as a whole.  

Headline inflation is expected to fall to 4.5% in September from the previous 5.2% recorded in August. This forecast follows Thursday’s data, which revealed that German inflation had dropped to its lowest level since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Despite Thursday’s German data indicating a drop in inflation, it is widely anticipated that the ECB will adhere to its hawkish policy stance.  

Technische Analyse 

The GER 40 Futures ticked up ahead of the release of inflation data in the Euro Area. With the Futures trading within reach of the 15603 level at the 23.60% Fibonacci Retracement, a diversion from oversold levels could tempt the price action towards the 16104 resistance at the Golden Ratio. A move past the 15603 level would tempt the index futures to trade rangebound once again, marking the Golden Ratio as a potential pivot point for upside momentum.  

However, rising inflation data could issue a pullback, supported by the 50-day moving average falling below the 100-day moving average. In this case, a breakdown of the 15294 support could edge the price action towards the 14721 major support and mark a 6-month low.  

Zusammenfassung 

The GER 40 Futures ticked up ahead of Euro Area inflation data, which is expected today. Disinflation is expected, which has bolstered the index futures within reach of the 15603 level. However, rising inflation may promote a pullback towards the 15294 support. 

Sources: TradingView, Reuters, CNBC