Navigating through a debt ceiling crisis, uncertainty on the interest rate outlook and potential for a recession, the Brent Crude Oil Futures (NYMEX: BB) has remained resilient after recovering from a 74-week low. Oil output cuts by OPEC+ taking effect in the coming month have supported prices as traders expect a probable surge on the back of demand potentially outweighing supply in the medium term.

The week ahead will see the FOMC Minutes, U.S. Labour Market reports, and the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the PCE Index, released. In addition, Global preliminary PMIs for May are looming, with activity in the biggest economy in the world forecast to taper off both in manufacturing and services, providing potential headwinds for Brent Crude Oil Futures.

Technische Analyse

The Brent Crude Oil Futures have been subdued of late, with the price trading in a downtrend, below the 100-day moving average. Support and resistance were established at the $68.21 and $80.29 per barrel (BLL) levels, respectively.

Price action rejected support and retraced towards the 61.80% Fibonacci Retracement Golden Ratio, where it has found a boundary to upside gains. If bearish traders defend the Golden Ratio at the $77.45 BLL level, supply could outweigh demand and send the Brent Crude Oil Futures lower, with the $68.21 BLL level a potential target.

Alternatively, a high volume breakout above the Golden Ratio could indicate bullish momentum overpowering the market. Bullish traders will likely earmark the $80.18 BLL level as a point of interest should they break through.

Zusammenfassung

After Crude Oil inventory came in well above expected in the prior week, analysts expect a sharp drop for the current week, reflecting enhanced demand. Combined with the output cut by OPEC+, the Brent Crude Oil Futures could be shielded from the downside unless weakness in the U.S. economy abounds as a threat to oil demand or if the Debt Ceiling Crisis goes unresolved.

Quellen: EIA, Reuters, TradingView