{"id":2236,"date":"2023-03-24T12:47:29","date_gmt":"2023-03-24T12:47:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.trive.com\/?p=2236"},"modified":"2023-03-24T12:47:30","modified_gmt":"2023-03-24T12:47:30","slug":"lofty-inflation-weighs-down-on-the-russell-2000-should-bulls-sit-out-for-longer","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.trive.com\/es\/inversion\/alta-inflacion-pesa-abajo-en-el-russell-2000-deberian-toros-sentarse-por-mas-tiempo\/","title":{"rendered":"La elevada inflaci\u00f3n pesa sobre el Russell 2000. \u00bfDeber\u00edan los alcistas esperar m\u00e1s tiempo?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>La alta inflaci\u00f3n generalmente deja un mal sabor de boca a los economistas. Viene con una gran cantidad de problemas para varias partes interesadas de la econom\u00eda que se enfrentan a \u00e9l.<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>El Proshares UltraPro Russell2000 (NYSE ARCA: URTY), que rastrea el desempe\u00f1o de las acciones estadounidenses de peque\u00f1a capitalizaci\u00f3n, ha visto una buena cantidad de dificultades en per\u00edodos de alta inflaci\u00f3n. La alta inflaci\u00f3n no solo afecta el gasto de los consumidores, lo que afecta negativamente a la l\u00ednea superior de las empresas orientadas al consumidor, sino que tambi\u00e9n provoca aumentos en las tasas de inter\u00e9s que agregan estr\u00e9s a los flujos de efectivo a medida que aumentan los costos de los pr\u00e9stamos.<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A continuaci\u00f3n se muestra una ilustraci\u00f3n gr\u00e1fica del comportamiento de la URTY en el entorno interanual de inflaci\u00f3n y tipos de inter\u00e9s. Durante el per\u00edodo comprendido entre 2011 y 2015, la inflaci\u00f3n mostr\u00f3 una tendencia a la baja, con tasas de inter\u00e9s relativamente planas. Este per\u00edodo vio el aumento de URTY 193% ya que el entorno era favorable para los negocios, lo que permiti\u00f3 a las empresas de peque\u00f1a capitalizaci\u00f3n financiar la expansi\u00f3n con bajos costos de endeudamiento.<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Sin embargo, la inflaci\u00f3n respondi\u00f3 al crecimiento de la actividad empresarial, lo que provoc\u00f3 un ligero repunte de la inflaci\u00f3n y un aumento de los tipos de inter\u00e9s. En 2017, la URTY se sumergi\u00f3 frente a un entorno m\u00e1s agresivo, lo que llev\u00f3 a una ca\u00edda de 39.77%. Se produjo una ca\u00edda similar pero con un impulso m\u00e1s significativo despu\u00e9s de que la inflaci\u00f3n se dispar\u00f3 entre 2020 y 2021. La Reserva Federal respondi\u00f3 aumentando las tasas al ritmo m\u00e1s r\u00e1pido de su historia, con los fondos federales subiendo de 0.1% a 4.10% en un a\u00f1o. Las fuertes subidas de tipos llevaron a la ca\u00edda de 62,60% en la URTY durante el a\u00f1o.<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"1024\" height=\"506\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.trive.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/2023.03.24-ND-URTY-IV-1-1024x506.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2237\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blog.trive.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/2023.03.24-ND-URTY-IV-1-1024x506.png 1024w, https:\/\/blog.trive.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/2023.03.24-ND-URTY-IV-1-300x148.png 300w, https:\/\/blog.trive.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/2023.03.24-ND-URTY-IV-1-768x380.png 768w, https:\/\/blog.trive.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/2023.03.24-ND-URTY-IV-1-1536x759.png 1536w, https:\/\/blog.trive.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/2023.03.24-ND-URTY-IV-1-18x9.png 18w, https:\/\/blog.trive.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/2023.03.24-ND-URTY-IV-1.png 1813w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2><br>T\u00e9cnicos<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>El URTY tiene una tendencia a la baja, con la acci\u00f3n del precio muy por debajo del promedio m\u00f3vil de 100 d\u00edas. El impulso bajista domina el mercado ya que el entorno fundamental (alta inflaci\u00f3n, altas tasas de inter\u00e9s) alimenta las presiones a la baja.<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Despu\u00e9s de una ruptura de alto volumen por debajo del nivel de soporte $35.31, es probable que el impulso a la baja mantenga el rumbo. En el pasado, se formaron niveles de soporte significativos en las proporciones \u00e1ureas de la extensi\u00f3n de Fibonacci de 61.80% y 161.8%, o los niveles $28.10 y $15.95, respectivamente. Si el precio se acerca a cualquier nivel en vol\u00famenes decrecientes, podr\u00eda indicar el debilitamiento de la presi\u00f3n bajista. Es probable que los inversores alcistas se sientan tentados a comprar el ETF en cualquiera de los niveles.<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"1024\" height=\"506\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.trive.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/2023.03.24-ND-URTY-IV-2-1024x506.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2238\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blog.trive.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/2023.03.24-ND-URTY-IV-2-1024x506.png 1024w, https:\/\/blog.trive.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/2023.03.24-ND-URTY-IV-2-300x148.png 300w, https:\/\/blog.trive.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/2023.03.24-ND-URTY-IV-2-768x380.png 768w, https:\/\/blog.trive.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/2023.03.24-ND-URTY-IV-2-1536x759.png 1536w, https:\/\/blog.trive.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/2023.03.24-ND-URTY-IV-2-18x9.png 18w, https:\/\/blog.trive.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/2023.03.24-ND-URTY-IV-2.png 1813w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2><br>Resumen<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Con la inflaci\u00f3n y las tasas de inter\u00e9s de EE. UU. en su punto m\u00e1s alto en m\u00e1s de diez a\u00f1os, la URTY probablemente se ver\u00e1 afectada hasta el primer giro de la Reserva Federal. Entre 2018 y 2019, la URTY tuvo un desempe\u00f1o positivo luego de que la Reserva Federal recortara las tasas durante el a\u00f1o. Es probable que la URTY siga estando agobiada a corto y medio plazo hasta que se reduzcan las tasas.<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Fuentes: Reserva Federal, Reuters, Nyse Arca, TradingView<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>La alta inflaci\u00f3n generalmente deja un mal sabor de boca a los economistas. Viene con una gran cantidad de problemas para varias partes interesadas de la econom\u00eda que se enfrentan a \u00e9l. El Proshares UltraPro Russell2000 (NYSE ARCA: URTY), que rastrea el desempe\u00f1o de las acciones estadounidenses de peque\u00f1a capitalizaci\u00f3n, ha visto una buena cantidad de dificultades en per\u00edodos de alta inflaci\u00f3n. Alta inflaci\u00f3n no [\u2026]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[2],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.10 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Lofty Inflation Weighs Down on the Russell 2000. 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