Piece Written By Nkosilathi Dube, Trive Financial Market Analyst
The WTI Crude Oil Futures (NYMEX: CL) stands at an intriguing juncture, poised for a pivotal response to today’s unveiling of July’s U.S. year-on-year inflation figures. A compelling narrative unfolds with the year-on-year Core inflation rate anticipated to hold steady at 4.8% and the general inflation rate inching upwards by 30 basis points to 3.3%.
The Oil Futures is closing down on a seventh consecutive week of gains and is up 2% week-to-date primarily due to the supply-side constraints, which have driven it higher over the past few weeks. Will today’s inflation data keep it on the path upward, or is a reversal imminent?
Technische Analyse
The WTI Crude Oil Futures is in a firm uptrend as it flees from its 100-day moving average. The oil futures have broken through prior highs, with the most recent swing high at $83.24 per barrel (BLL) being the last to be breached. The level now forms support, while the $87.75 BLL level establishes a significant peak or resistance formed in November 2022.
Given that the oil futures is trading in a firm uptrend, a possibility exists that the resistance level could materialise, primarily due to the supply-side constraints. However, if U.S. inflation speeds up beyond expectations, the oil futures could falter as the market will likely anticipate higher rates for longer.
Zusammenfassung
The key driver of sentiment will be the U.S. inflation data. If inflation speeds up beyond expectations, the oil futures could falter, leaving the $83.24 BLL level probable in the short to medium term. In contrast, a slowdown in inflation could boost the futures, leaving the $87.75 BLL level probable.
Quellen: Reuters, TradingView
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