Piece written by Mfanafuthi Mhlongo, Trive Financial Market Analyst 

The Dow Jones Index Futures (CBOT: YM), currently trading at 33,648, has entered a phase of consolidation as bulls and bears engaged in a short-term struggle for control. Market sentiment remains uncertain as investors closely monitor key economic indicators and central bank policies. 

The recent release of the ISM Manufacturing PMI, which improved from 47.6 in August to 49 in September, exceeded analyst expectations. Additionally, the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI showed growth from 47.9 to 49.8 in September. These figures indicate a potential slowdown in the manufacturing sector’s contraction, boosting optimism. 

However, rising bond yields and a stronger dollar continue to impact market dynamics. The 10-year Treasury yield surged to new highs, affecting investor preferences and putting pressure on stocks.  

Technical Analysis: 

In the 4-hour chart, the Dow Jones Index trades flat at 33,648 as the bulls and bears intensified their short-term scuffle for dominance. The price action is positioned below the downward-sloping 20-EMA (green line), 50-EMA (blue line), and 100-EMA (red line), indicating a short-term bearish bias. 

The 100-EMA is trading above both the 20-EMA and 50-EMA, while the 20-EMA recently crossed below the 50-EMA and the 100-EMA, suggesting also confirming the presence of bearish pressure in the near term. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is showing slight upward movement, with an RSI value of 41.46 and a rising RSI-based Moving Average at 41.10, indicating a potential for bullish momentum. 

Short-term trading opportunities could emerge if the price action manages to push higher, with resistance around the 33,866 level likely acting as the initial level of interest. A break above this initial resistance could target the 34,130 resistance level.  

However, a failure to sustain upward momentum could lead to short-term trading opportunities towards the initial support at 33,549, with potential further support levels at 33,391 and 33,138 in the short term. 

Zusammenfassung 

The Dow Jones futures remain flat, reflecting cautious sentiment among traders following the release of the recent ISM Manufacturing PMI and S&P Global Manufacturing PMI reports, which exceeded expectations, offering some optimism. However, rising bond yields and a stronger dollar are causing uncertainty in the market. 

The technicals show a short-term bearish bias, with the price action below key moving averages, with the continued push lower likely to find support at the 33,549 price level. However, the RSI suggests potential for bullish momentum, which could target 33,899 in the short term. Therefore, heading to the JOLTs data and NFP report on Friday, short-term trading opportunities could arise depending on the resolution of the current struggle. 

Quellen: TradingView, KoyFin, Reuters, Trading Economics.